Restaurant ROI Calculator
Capex + revenue ramp + P&L costs → 24-month cash-flow projection, payback month, annual ROI %, and stress scenarios. Answers whether the investment comes back in a timeline you can survive.
Format & city (optional)
Investment
Revenue & ramp
Monthly costs
Month 22 payback (with ramp) and 61.7% steady-state annual ROI reads healthy for an Indian QSR/cloud format.
Cumulative net profit vs investment
Monthly projection
| Month | Revenue | Costs | Net | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ₹5,40,000 | ₹4,59,000 | ₹81,000 | ₹81,000 |
| 2 | ₹6,72,000 | ₹5,71,200 | ₹1,00,800 | ₹1,81,800 |
| 3 | ₹8,04,000 | ₹6,83,400 | ₹1,20,600 | ₹3,02,400 |
| 4 | ₹9,36,000 | ₹7,95,600 | ₹1,40,400 | ₹4,42,800 |
| 5 | ₹10,68,000 | ₹9,07,800 | ₹1,60,200 | ₹6,03,000 |
| 6 | ₹12,00,000 | ₹10,20,000 | ₹1,80,000 | ₹7,83,000 |
| 7 | ₹12,00,000 | ₹10,20,000 | ₹1,80,000 | ₹9,63,000 |
| 8 | ₹12,00,000 | ₹10,20,000 | ₹1,80,000 | ₹11,43,000 |
| 9 | ₹12,00,000 | ₹10,20,000 | ₹1,80,000 | ₹13,23,000 |
| 10 | ₹12,00,000 | ₹10,20,000 | ₹1,80,000 | ₹15,03,000 |
| 11 | ₹12,00,000 | ₹10,20,000 | ₹1,80,000 | ₹16,83,000 |
| 12 | ₹12,00,000 | ₹10,20,000 | ₹1,80,000 | ₹18,63,000 |
Stress scenarios
How payback and first-year return shift when assumptions change.
| Scenario | Payback | Year-1 ROI | Year-1 net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | Month 22 | 53.2% | ₹18,63,000 |
| Revenue −15% | 24+ mo | 18.1% | ₹6,33,420 |
| Net profit −25% | 24+ mo | 39.9% | ₹13,97,250 |
| Ramp +2 months | Month 22 | 50.4% | ₹17,64,000 |
Capex is only half the question
The capital estimator tells you how much you will spend. The break-even calculator tells you the revenue line. This tool tells you whether that spend comes back in a timeline you can survive — accounting for the 4–8 month ramp that no new restaurant avoids.
The model runs a 24-month cash-flow projection: during the ramp period revenue climbs linearly from your opening-month percentage to steady state, while fixed costs stay constant from day one. The payback month is the first month where cumulative net profit equals or exceeds your total investment. Stress scenarios re-run this projection with altered assumptions to show how fragile the model is.
Pair it with the break-even calculator, cost-to-open estimator, and viability score before you commit.
Related reading
- financeRestaurant break-even formula India (with calculator)
Break-even is the most important number in your restaurant. It’s also the one most owners have never written down. Here is the formula, three worked examples, and a free calculator that does the maths for you.
- operationsWhy Indian restaurants fail in year one (4 numbers that predict it)
60 to 70% of Indian restaurants close inside a year. The food is rarely the problem. These are the four numbers: break even, food cost %, prime cost, and 30 day cohort retention, that almost always predict outcome by month four.
- pre launchHow much does it actually cost to open a restaurant in Pune in 2026?
Most ‘restaurant cost’ blogs stop at ‘around ₹25 lakh’. Here is the line by line breakdown for a 60 seat casual dining restaurant on FC Road or Kothrud: equipment, interiors, deposits, licences, working capital, and the four numbers most owners forget.
Common questions
What ROI should I expect from a restaurant in India?
Well-run independent restaurants often target 15–25% annual ROI on all-in capital after steady state. Payback in 3–4 years is common for QSR and cloud kitchens; casual dining with higher capex often needs 4–5 years if the site is right.
What's the difference between ROI and payback?
Payback is how many months until cumulative net profit equals your opening investment. Annual ROI is (12 × monthly net profit) ÷ investment. A fast payback with thin monthly profit can still show a modest ROI — run both numbers.
Should I include working capital in the investment?
Yes. Most year-one failures are working-capital failures, not equipment failures. Include capex, deposit, licences, and 30–45 days of operating float in the investment field.
How do I estimate monthly net profit before I open?
Use the break-even calculator for revenue needed to clear costs, then subtract fixed costs and a realistic owner draw. Or switch to 'Build from P&L lines' mode in this calculator and enter rent, salaries, utilities, and variable cost % directly.
Why does the calculator show a ramp period?
New restaurants almost never open at full revenue. Typical Indian outlets reach steady-state revenue in 4–8 months. The ramp model accounts for this, showing you when cumulative profit actually recovers the investment — not an unrealistic day-one steady-state assumption.
What's a safe ramp assumption for my format?
Cloud kitchens with existing brand strength can ramp in 3–4 months. QSR in 5–6 months. Casual dining in 6–8 months. Fine dining in 8–12. If you're unsure, use 6 months and 45% opening-month revenue — then stress-test with the '+2 months' scenario row.
What is owner draw vs business profit?
Owner draw is the monthly salary you pay yourself. It's a fixed cost deducted before net profit. Business net profit is what the entity retains after all costs including your draw. Include owner draw in P&L mode to see realistic return on invested capital.
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