How the Forkcast tools are calibrated

Data sources

Agmarknet (Govt. of India)
Daily mandi prices for 12+ commodities (onion, tomato, potato, ginger, garlic, oil, etc.). Refreshed every 24 hours. Used in the menu pricing tool's mandi-priced ingredient line.
Capital benchmarks dataset
Curated data from 200+ Indian restaurant openings (2023-2026), cross-checked against Petpooja hardware partner quotes. Refreshed quarterly. The capital estimator uses per-format drivers (sqft, rent band, fit-out tier, headcount) calibrated to published format bands — not fixed percentage splits.
Cuisine listing density
Aggregated Zomato + Swiggy listings by pincode, normalised to city population. Refreshed monthly.
State licence portals
FoSCoS (FSSAI), state excise departments, MCG/PMC/BMC trade licence schedules, fire-services NOC fee schedules. Refreshed when policy changes are notified.
IMD weather
India Meteorological Department forecast data, used in the in-product daily forecast (not exposed in free tools).

Calibration cadence

Daily: Agmarknet mandi prices.
Weekly: Tool usage anonymous QA — outlier outputs flagged and reviewed.
Monthly: Cuisine listing density refresh; viability and demand heatmap recalibration.
Quarterly: Capital benchmark dataset refresh; format and tier coefficients re-fit.
On policy change: Licence cost, validity, and authority updates within 7 working days.

Limitations we're upfront about

Capital estimates are driver-based defaults you can edit line-by-line. Real openings can still fall outside expectations when the format is unusual or location is exceptional.
The location scorer falls back to a heuristic when GOOGLE_PLACES_API_KEY isn't configured. The result page tells you which source was used.
Cuisine demand is a directional read — region-specific cultural patterns (e.g. Konkan coastal seafood, Saoji in Nagpur) aren't fully captured at the slug level. Use it alongside in-person catchment validation.
Mandi prices are reference rates, not your supplier's quoted rate. A 5-10% delta is normal; flag >15% deltas for re-quote.
Licence fees are state-issued; some PMC/BMC sub-classifications can swing the number 30-50% within the published band.

Capital estimator formulas

Interiors: sqft × fit-out cost per sqft (lean / mid / premium) × city tier multiplier.
Deposit: sqft × rent per sqft × deposit months (format-specific, typically 4–12).
Equipment: format base + per-sqft adder, scaled by city tier.
Licences: sum of state + format checklist from official fee schedules; fire-install add-on when applicable.
Working capital: 1.5× monthly fixed OPEX (editable).
Total funding: total CAPEX + pre-opening OPEX buffer (default 3 months of fixed costs).

How we keep ourselves honest

Each tool publishes its formula and source list inside the FAQ on the tool page. When we change a coefficient or add a new dataset, we note it in the next blog issue. Pilot operator feedback drives the weekly QA loop — if a tool's output disagrees with their lived experience, we investigate.

Comments, corrections, and dataset suggestions are welcome — write to hello@forkcast.in. We acknowledge every email and credit substantive corrections in the next monthly digest.

Open the free tools, read the complete opening guide, or browse the blog for the latest applied research.